Nvidia (NVDA) has been the most discussed name of the artificial intelligence era but newfound geopolitical challenges are beginning to cloud its future. 

In a recent appearance on stage at the Milken Institute, CEO Jensen Huang cautioned that Nvidia is being kept out of a “Boeing-sized opportunity,” referring not to the planes but a market the size of the entire aerospace leader, as U.S. export controls keep its high-end AI chips from entering China. Huang estimated the total addressable market to be approximately $50 billion and emphasized the magnitude of what it is forfeiting.

Nvidia has previously complied with export restrictions, releasing watered-down versions of its chips such as the H20 for China. With the latest restrictions, however, even the H20 is blocked for export to China. This coincides with the stock trying to make up a for its slump in the first half of 2025 amid overall concerns of valuation and competition. 

Analysts remain positive on the stock, but the China conundrum is increasingly challenging the core of the NVDA bull thesis.

About Nvidia Stock

Nvidia (NVDA) is a prominent graphics processing unit (GPU), AI accelerator, and data center hardware and software designer. The Santa Clara, California-headquartered firm has established itself as the market leader when it comes to AI infrastructure, boasting a market capitalization of around $3 trillion.

Nvidia stock has moved between $86.62 and $153.13 during the last 52 weeks, dropping by 2.6% year-to-date, underperforming the S&P 500 Index ($SPX), which is slightly positive for the year. 

The stock trades at a price-earnings multiple of 40.8x on a trailing basis and a price-earnings multiple of 28.7x on a forward basis. These are lofty numbers, but they are underpinned by solid fundamentals: a 56% margin on the bottom line, a return on equity of 112%, and EBITDA of $83.3 billion. A PEG multiple of 1.17x indicates its growth is affordably priced. The price-sales multiple of 22x and price-cash flow of 38.4x are also pricey but capture the magnitude of the role of Nvidia in fueling the global AI boom.

Nvidia Fails to Capture $50B China Opportunity as It Experiences Export Restrictions 

Nvidia’s most recent headwind is around more stringent U.S. export controls to limit China’s exposure to advanced semiconductors. The ban was extended to cover Nvidia’s H20 chips in April 2025, goods already redesigned to meet previous restrictions. The newest restrictions keep Nvidia out of what its CEO Jensen Huang estimated will amount to a $50 billion AI chip market in China in the next couple of years.

Huang has denounced the policy, saying that Nvidia will lose out to Chinese companies such as Huawei. He also said that the export restrictions will not be effective in blocking Chinese military use of cutting-edge tech. “The fallacy of that is no government, especially the government of our adversaries, are limited by the available capacity of computing in their country for their military reasons,” he stated. There are already millions of Nvidia chips in circulation around the world, making enforcement incomplete at best. He further explained that if allowed to compete, American AI standards would set the global benchmark.

The company has projected fiscal first-quarter revenue of $43 billion, and it will reveal its results on May 28. 

What Do Analysts Expect for Nvidia Stock?

Despite rising geopolitical risks, Wall Street remains overwhelmingly bullish on Nvidia with a “Strong Buy” rating consensus. According to Barchart’s internal analyst data, 44 analysts currently cover the stock, with 37 rating it a “Strong Buy,” two as a “Moderate Buy,” and only four as a “Hold.” The consensus price target is $166 and reflects upside of 29%. The Street-high target of $220 reflects even higher confidence in the data center and AI software strength of Nvidia despite export-related challenges.